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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 16: Speculation on Autism
By Paul Almond
24 July 2010
This is the sixteenth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The cognitive model and approach to artificial intelligence uses a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. The hierarchy needs processing to provide relevance, with useful pattern instances being featured in the hierarchy, and used as a basis for exploratory extension of the hierarchy, while less useful pattern instances are removed, so that the hierarchy "grows" into high-relevancy regions, and this is achieved by a back-propagation relevance measurement process and a process to assign relevance values to pattern instances. Restrictive and repetitive behavior in autistic spectrum conditions could be explained in terms of a problem with the processing to provide relevance in the hierarchy. If the rate of turnover of pattern instances - the rate at which low-relevance pattern instances are removed and new ones are added - is reduced, the ability of the hierarchy to adapt its structure in response to occurrence of external inputs/outputs will be affected; however, the availability of "old" pattern instances in the hierarchy could also make otherwise inaccessible regions of the hierarchy accessible. Other characteristics of autism might be explained by other causes, though there could be an overall, ultimate cause, but they might also be explained in terms of the general limitation in modeling described here. The cognitive model treats the "self" as just part of the model, so any limitation in modeling ability which affects representation of other people might affect representation of the "self".
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On God, Evil and Simulation
By Paul Almond
20 July 2010
The occurrence of evil is often used as an argument against the existence of a benevolent god. Against this, theists typically make excuses for the occurrence of evil. One of these is that humans need to be given freedom to act. It is argued that this is flawed, because God should be able to provide each of us with a personal world that allows freedom to act, while insulating each of us from everyone else’s actions. Any being who cannot do this is not worthy of being called “God”, and rather than believe in a god that could do this, but chooses not to, we should doubt that a benevolent god, as typically believed in by theists, exists.
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rationalskepticism.org Podcast - Episode 0: The Possibility of Extraterrestial Life
By hackenslash, jerome, natselrox, Paul Almond
14 July 2010
Along with hackenslash, jerome and natselrox, I was invited to take part in the first podcast made for the http://wwww.rationalskepticism.org forum. The subject being discussed was the possibility of extraterrestial life. The recording was made on 3 July 2010, and after editing by hackenslash, this is the result. More podcasts like this are intended on a regular basis. In the end, it was decided that this was not up to the standards needed to be an "official" podcast: More organization will be needed for future podcasts. However, it was decided that, rather than waste it, it would be placed online anyway as "Episode 0".
Listen to the podcast at: http://www.rationalskepticism.org/podcast/
An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 15: A Complete Description
By Paul Almond
10 July 2010
This is the fifteenth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. For readers wanting an understanding of what is being suggested, this article is an ideal starting point, as it gives a complete description of the cognitive model as it stands at the time of writing. This article brings everything together so that it can be understood by reading just this article, instead of having to read fourteen articles and having to read about ideas that are changed later, or read through a long discussion in which the concepts are developed. The cognitive model and approach to artificial intelligence uses a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. The hierarchical model is actually used to plan the system's actions, and this implies that what people regard as the "self" is really an object in the hierarchical model. The hierarchy needs to be relevant, with pattern instances that are useful being featured in the hierarchy, and used as a basis for exploratory extension of the hierarchy, while less useful pattern instances are removed, so that the hierarchy "grows" into high-relevancy regions, and this is achieved by a back-propagation relevance measurement process which assigns relevance values to pattern instances. Relevance can also be provided by reflexive outputs: special outputs that are made in the same way as normal outputs, but which alter the hierarchical model.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 14: Mind Control Speculation
By Paul Almond
24 June 2010
This is the fourteenth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. The hierarchy's structure is based on the history of previous inputs/outputs, so "faking" outputs at the point of entry into the hierarchy as bottom-level pattern instances could be used to control the representation of the world in the hierarchy. The behavior of a human brain may be altered by such "faking" of the outputs that are stored in bottom-level pattern instances. The "self" has no qualitatively special status, but is merely an object in the hierarchy's representation of the world, and would therefore be altered in such a process. The extent to which such a process would affect a human would depend on the extent to which the human brain is like the hierarchical system described in this series of articles. A non-invasive version of the process, involving manipulation of the environment, is also discussed, as is combining this with the process of manipulating outputs. The more extreme idea of copying an entire mind, or some other computer system, into an artificial hierarchy or a human brain is discussed.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 13: Reflexive Outputs
By Paul Almond
17 June 2010
This is the thirteenth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. An exploratory relevance process has been described, to restrict the hierarchy to representing relevant features of the world. This article introduces a further way of providing relevance: reflexive outputs. Reflexive outputs are outputs that, instead of controlling devices in the "outside world", control the modeling system itself - making adjustments to the hierarchy to direct its modeling. An AI system could learn to make reflexive outputs in the same way that it learns to make other outputs, because the distinction between the system itself and the "outside world" is really artificial: Outputs affect the world and, if a system is able to learn how to make appropriate ones, it should not matter if part of the world being affected happens to be the system itself. Reflexive outputs are not being proposed as an alternative to the exploratory relevance process proposed previously, which is still the main process for providing relevance, but are intended to augment it. A philosophical consideration of reflexive outputs in relation to the "self" is also given.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 12: Pattern Relevance
By Paul Almond
15 June 2010
This is the twelfth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern’s set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern’s population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. An exploratory relevance process has been previously described, the purpose of which is to ensure that the pattern instances included in the hierarchy are those which are relevant to the predictions of future evaluation function score values required in the system’s action selection process. This is done by assigning relevance values to pattern instances in a back-propagation process. The issue of selecting the patterns themselves that will be involved in this has had little discussion, and this article remedies this by discussing the inclusion of pattern selection into an exploratory relevance process. A general view of the exploratory relevance process is also given: Although the exploratory relevance process involves trial and error, modifications to the hierarchy build on what already exists, and the hierarchy also directs its own future development.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 11: Explaining Dreaming
By Paul Almond
30 May 2010
This is the eleventh in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. If the proposed view of the mind is generally correct, phenomena in human brains should make sense within this context. This article discusses dreaming within the context of the hierarchy of pattern instances. It is suggested that dreaming occurs in a partially functioning hierarchy. Functioning pattern instances that would normally receive pattern inputs from non-functional ones instead receive noise. The wide scope of the hierarchy, in terms of explaining the "self" as part of the model, similarly gives any explanation of dreaming involving the hierarchy being compromised a wide scope, economically explaining the general effects of dreaming on perception of reality, memory and behavior. If this is correct, dreaming is not profoundly different from waking experience, but only differs by a matter of degree. Looking at this another way, waking experience could be considered to be a particularly detailed dream that is strongly influenced by reality, with the "self" being "dreamed" by the hierarchical model with everything else.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 10: Pattern Instance Construction Alternatives
By Paul Almond
21 May 2010
This is the tenth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern’s set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern’s population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. An exploratory relevance process has been described, which achieves the relevance of the hierarchy by removing low-relevance pattern instances while the hierarchy “grows”, so that it will tend to retreat from low-relevance regions and grow into high-relevance ones, and forgetting is part of this process. The way in which patterns relate to pattern instances has been described as being a “constructive” one, in which each pattern is considered as a machine that “builds” its pattern instances. It is not essential for such an approach to be used, however. The only requirements are that pattern instances belong to patterns and that the relationship between a pattern and its pattern instances can be expressed very generally. This article discusses possible alternatives for the relationship between patterns and pattern instances. These are pattern instances being made randomly and selected by patterns, pattern instances being made by some exploratory process and selected by patterns and the connection of pattern instances being influenced by patterns.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 9: Improving the Exploratory Relevance Process
By Paul Almond
13 May 2010
This is the ninth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be specified in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. A basic, exploratory relevance process has been described, which achieves relevance of the hierarchy by removing low-relevance pattern instances while the hierarchy "grows", so that it will tend to retreat from low-relevance regions and grow into high-relevance ones. The basic, exploratory relevance process uses a relevance measurement process, which back-propagates relevance through the hierarchy. The basic, exploratory relevance process also performs forgetting - the removal of obsolete pattern instances from the hierarchy. This is done in the relevance measurement process, by taking account of obsolescence. The basic, exploratory relevance process is only a simple exploratory relevance process, with about the minimum of processing needed to function. This article describes possible improvements to the basic, exploratory relevance process, to produce a more sophisticated exploratory relevance process. Possible improvements are varying update frequency, making pattern instance addition explicitly dependent on relevance and examining relevance for regions.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 8: Forgetting as Part of the Exploratory Relevance Process
By Paul Almond
07 May 2010
This is the eighth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles have described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be specified in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. An exploratory relevance process has been described, which achieves relevance of the hierarchy by removing low-relevance pattern instances while the hierarchy "grows", so that it will tend to retreat from low-relevance regions and grow into high-relevance ones. The exploratory relevance process uses a relevance measurement process, which back-propagates relevance through the hierarchy. The exploratory relevance process, as previously described, does not provide forgetting - the removal of obsolete pattern instances which are no longer having any useful effect on the hierarchy. A forgetting process was described earlier, but that description now needs revising after the change to a completely probabilistic hierarchy. In this article, the relevance measurement process is modified to take account of obsolescence of pattern instances, so that they will tend to be assigned low relevance and the exploratory relevance process will remove them. Forgetting is reduced to being merely a special case of the exploratory relevance process.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 7: A Basic, Exploratory Relevance Process
By Paul Almond
18 April 2010
This is the seventh in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles have described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern’s set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern’s population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. A way is needed of ensuring that the hierarchy only represents relevant features of the world. This requires a way of measuring the relevance of individual pattern instances in the hierarchy, or of parts of the hierarchy. The sixth article described such a measurement process. Such a measurement process is made possible by the way that the action selection process, described in the second article, requires probabilistic predictions of specific pattern instances corresponding to future evaluation function score values. This enables a measurement process in which these pattern instances are regarded as relevant, relevance then being back-propagated from them through the rest of the hierarchy. In this article, this measurement process is used in an exploratory process that reduces the hierarchy, by removing pattern instances, where it appears insufficiently relevant to justify its existence, while continually extending the hierarchy so that it grows into relevant regions.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 6: Measuring Relevance
By Paul Almond
08 April 2010
This is the sixth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. Previous articles have described a probabilistic hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern’s set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for probabilistic predictions. Each pattern’s population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. The fourth article discussed the need to focus the hierarchy on what is relevant, and how this requires the ability to remove pattern instances from the hierarchy, and the fifth article modified the description of the hierarchy, making it completely probabilistic – without reliance on any special case of certainty – to enable this. The hierarchy will be made relevant by an exploratory process that extends it where it is likely to be relevant, and prunes it where it is less relevant. Such a process will need a way of measuring the relevance of individual pattern instances in the hierarchy, or of parts of the hierarchy. This article describes such a measurement process. The measurement process is made possible by the way that the action selection process, described in the second article, requires probabilistic predictions of specific pattern instances corresponding to future evaluation function score values. This enables a measurement process in which these pattern instances are regarded as relevant, relevance then being back-propagated from them through the rest of the hierarchy.
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On Macros
By Paul Almond
03 April 2010
Software users often have requirements that are not met by the software. One solution to this is macros – external scripts that can interact with programs to provide extra functionality – but such a solution has shortcomings. In some environments, macros do not have logical access to the user interface of programs. Even when this is available, macros typically provide extra functionality that is not integrated with the user interfaces of programs. An approach is proposed which deals with these issues. Programs have two distinct user interfaces: a human user interface and a logical user interface. Macros can interact with the logical user interface of the program. Elements can be added to the human user interface of a program without any modification of its internal processing, the added elements interacting only with external macros, and this can make the functionality of a program appear to be extended. The extra functionality required in programs may be provided by adapting computer language software so that any programs produced with it automatically have the capability of working with macros in this way.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 5: A Completely Probabilistic Hierarchy
By Paul Almond
27 March 2010
This is the fifth in a series of articles attempting an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The first article described a hierarchy based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern's set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for predictions. Each pattern's population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. The fourth article discussed the need to focus the hierarchy on what is relevant, and how this requires the ability to remove pattern instances from the hierarchy. This is likely to cause some pattern instances to have missing pattern inputs, so that their states, and the states of any pattern instances which depend, directly or indirectly on them, cannot be determined with certainty. This would make the process of "fixing", an important aspect of the system up until now, impractical. The hierarchy needs to be modified so that it does not rely on any special-case "fixing" process, instead allowing pattern instances to be dealt with by purely probabilistic processes. This issue is dealt with in this article. This "fault tolerant" hierarchy will prepare for later articles to discuss how the system can be focused only on the relevant, and made more efficient, by preventing explicit representation of all pattern instances.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 4: Modeling Efficiency
By Paul Almond
20 March 2010
This is the fourth in a series of articles attempting to give an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The first article described a probabilistic, hierarchical modeling system, based on patterns, which are sets of pattern instances, intended to provide a general ontology. The second article described the use of this for planning actions. A serious issue with AI systems is ensuring that the computation that is done is useful. A system like this finds patterns, then patterns based on the patterns, and so on. Only a small amount of this computation will be relevant. Unless something is done to prevent it, there will be a huge proliferation of pattern instances that are of little use in the making of predictions. This article explores this issue, and starts to consider, very broadly, what may be involved in reducing the number of pattern instances in the model. This will be built on in later articles, which will discuss specific methods of achieving what is discussed here.
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How to Prevent Phishing
By Paul Almond
15 March 2010
A method is described for preventing phishing. In a secure login process, user details (such as the username and password) are combined with some identifying code associated with the website, and automatically obtained from it by the web browser, and a cryptographic hash function applied to this information, generating a hash code that is sent to the website. An obvious example of such a unique identifying code is the website's address, although a code associated with a digital signature, identifying the owner of the website, could be used. The hash code must match the value expected from a user for a successful login. The information sent to the server in a secure login depends on what is being logged into, causing the information stolen by a fake website, in a secure login, to differ from what the real website expects. The method involves ensuring that the user makes secure logins, in which the hashing process as described above occurs. If this happens, the user is safe, even if he/she logs into a fake website. Secure logins are made hard to avoid. They are associated with specific signals and actions that the user receives and performs, that are unique to a secure login. Various methods of achieving this are described.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 3: Forgetting
By Paul Almond
13 March 2010
This is the third in a series of articles attempting to give an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The first article described a probabilistic, hierarchical modeling system intended to provide a general ontology. The second article described the use of this for planning actions. The hierarchy as described so far is idealized. One way in which it is impractical is that all pattern instances exist in the hierarchy permanently. It is implausible that the human brain works in this way. It would mean, for example, that every single input to a light sensitive cell on your retina was stored permanently, so that your brain would contain a detailed "video recording" of your entire life. A system working like this would waste computing resources on dealing with pattern instances that are no longer relevant. A basic forgetting procedure is described, in which a pattern instance is erased when it has a known state and no longer has any effect on the hierarchy: This is when it is no longer being used as a pattern input by any other pattern instances which do not yet have known states. The possible desirability of increasing or reducing the amount of forgetting is discussed, as well as ways of doing this. The basic forgetting procedure is also related to human experience of memory and forgetting. The two kinds of forgetting are not exactly the same, but we should expend some correspondence between them.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 2: Planning and Actions
By Paul Almond
06 March 2010
This is the second in a series of articles that will attempt to give an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The first article described a probabilistic, hierarchical modeling system intended to provide a general ontology. This article describes the use of this for planning actions. The approach to planning of actions makes planning a process occurring mainly in the hierarchical model itself. An evaluation function score is continually computed and encoded as input data for the hierarchy, just as conventional, external inputs are, the scores corresponding to bottom-level pattern instances. When an output is imminent, the different values for the output are tried, the hierarchy being updated appropriately, and predictions of a future input of the evaluation function score are obtained. It is shown that an approach like this allows learning. There is no explicit attempt to represent "consciousness" or a "self". Instead, in humans, these are objects within the modeling system, constructed to explain previous behavior, and are only different from other objects in that they relate outputs with later outputs, and therefore relate to intentionality.
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An Attempt to Generalize AI - Part 1: The Modeling System
By Paul Almond
13 February 2010
This is the first in a series of articles that will attempt to give an overview of how minds may work and how similar systems could be implemented in computers. The approach is based on patterns. A pattern has a specification describing a set, or population, of pattern instances, distributed throughout a hierarchy containing the pattern instances of all the patterns. Each pattern’s set of pattern instances is used to obtain statistical information for predictions. Each pattern’s population of pattern instances is to be described in a very general way, to provide a very general ontology. Later articles will discuss how the system can be made more efficient, by introducing an analogy of “forgetting” and preventing explicit representation of all pattern instances, and how the system can be used to provide intelligent behavior, rather than just modeling.
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On Information Scarcity
By Paul Almond
08 February 2010
Computing and network technologies mean that some products can be considered as information products and can be distributed to large numbers of people for not much more than it would cost to supply them to small numbers of people. This does not happen: The need for sellers to make money causes a scarcity of information products, which is shown to be artificial. Distribution of information products by the market is inefficient. A method of dealing with this scarcity problem is described that does not rely on state interference and which abstracts agreements involving buyers and sellers. The economics behind such an idea are already understood. What is proposed here is a business model that can make them work on a large scale, without any centralized system of assigning value to products.
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On Double Standards About Causes in Religious Apologetics
By Paul Almond
08 January 2010
Some arguments for the existence of God, such as William Lane Craig's Kalam cosmological argument, assume, or try to show, that the universe has a start, before arguing that anything which begins to exist has a cause. The cause is claimed to be God. There are problems with justifying the assertion of a universal rule that everything that begins has a cause. Asserting such a rule would need to be justified on the grounds that some philosophical view requires it or that our experience of the world shows it to be the case. Such justifications, when explored in more detail, would eliminate God as easily as they eliminate an uncaused thing or event - if the reasoning behind them is even valid. Claiming that everything that begins has a cause in a proof of God therefore involves a double standard.
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On Drugs Policy
By Paul Almond
29 November 2009
The war on drugs has not solved the problem of illegal drugs. That leaves us with a choice between legalizing drugs or finding another way of fighting the illegal drugs industry. This article proposes an approach for fighting the illegal drugs industry by waging economic warfare against it. This combines taking away its established customers to deprive of it money with ensuring that drug dealing has severe penalties and high risks, so that dealers have a high risk of severe penalties for little money. The idea is to reduce the rationality of working in the illegal drugs industry and force it into a decline, reducing its tendency to create more habitual drug users. The progression from non-user to dependent user is therefore interrupted. Although the approach would initially be expensive, after it has damaged the illegal drugs industry it would be cheaper to maintain.
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Launching anything is good: How Governments Could Promote Space Development
By Paul Almond
01 November 2009
Government organizations have failed to develop space technology to the point where economies of scale apply and space activity becomes self-supporting. Private businesses may have the problem that in the early stages, before space is economically developed, there will be a limited market for space travel. When space is developed there could be significant economic returns, but development of the technology to achieve that could be hindered by the limited market in the early stages. This article suggests that a government can help with this by providing a guaranteed market for space travel and development.
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There is no god, and yes I can say that.
By Paul Almond
07 June 2009
Theists and agnostics often say that nobody can say that there is no god. This is not merely disagreement with the statement that there is no god - for example because they think the claim is reasonable or is supported by evidence. They mean that nobody can validly say that there is no god even in principle, because this would mean proving with certainty that God does not exist, and total knowledge would be needed to rule out the idea completely. This article argues against this, showing that it is semantically consistent to say that there is no god, if we consider God to be sufficiently implausible, even in the absence of an absolute proof of God's non-existence. Any claim made for an object's existence implies many claims of the non-existence of "invalidators" - implausible objects that would invalidate the claim, or at least make it unsafe, if they existed. If God is like an invalidator, asserting God's non-existence is entirely consistent, regardless of what position is taken on invalidators, with how semantics normally deals with invalidators.
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A Proposal for General AI Modeling
By Paul Almond
10 April 2009
A probabilistic, hierarchical modeling system is proposed which generates a hierarchy of patterns, each with a probability. Lower-level pattern (or object) probabilities are generated from the data to be processed and used to generate still higher-level probabilities, and so on. High-level pattern probabilities also influence low-level ones, ultimately causing low-level, unknown data to be assigned probabilities. Meta-patterns are also used, providing a more general ontology by allowing description of the occurrence of the same kinds of patterns in different contexts and at different levels of the hierarchy. The modeling approach is intended for use in planning as modeling, an approach to AI planning which involves almost all planning being performed by a modeling system. When it is used in this way, predictions of future evaluation function scores could be obtained from the system to evaluate any given output. To make development of the modeling system more feasible, this article describes a modeling system intended to fill in missing parts of images. Such a modeling system could be adapted for use in general AI, in planning as modeling, later.
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Machines Like Us Interviews: John Searle
Paul Almond interviews John Searle. Edited by Norm Nason
15 March 2009
John Searle is Slusser Professor of Philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley, and has made notable contributions to the philosophy of language and the philosophy of mind. He was awarded the Jean Nicod Prize in 2000 and the National Humanities Medal in 2004. Professor Searle is well-known for his criticism of the idea that artificial intelligence research will lead to conscious machines, and in particular for his famous Chinese Room Argument. I interviewed Professor Searle for the website Machines Like Us. The link given here is an external link to the interview on the Machines Like Us website at http://machineslikeus.com/interviews/machines-us-interviews-john-searle. I would like to thank Professor Searle for giving his time for this interview and Machines Like Us for inviting me to conduct it.
Read this interview at Machines Like Us
Is it fair for God to reward belief and punish disbelief?
By Paul Almond
10 February 2009
Many Christians claim that believers will be rewarded in the afterlife, while disbelievers will be punished. You cannot rationally choose to believe what you find unbelievable. God seems unfairly to reward people for irrationality. Many claims might be at least as likely to be correct as Christianity, and it seems that non-believers will be rewarded for choosing the right claim by chance, when nothing suggests that it is right to a non-believer. God seems unfairly to reward good luck. Christians could reply that you are not being asked just to believe - you can test Christianity - however this demands a special investment of time and resources that other claims of equal or greater probability may not receive. This also rewards irrationality and punishes rationality. God as imagined by many Christians is unfair. God is supposedly perfect, and unfairness is imperfect, so such a god does not exist.
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Searle's Argument Against AI and Emergent Properties
By Paul Almond
28 December 2008
John Searle argues against the idea that an appropriately programmed computer would be conscious by saying that consciousness is an emergent property of a physical system, caused by a particular kind of physical process, and that you should regard consciousness as likely when the kinds of physical processes causing your own consciousness are occurring. According to this argument, there is no reason to think that a computer is likely to be conscious, irrespective of its behaviour, because that behaviour is not being caused by physical processes known to cause consciousness. This is a flawed position. While it is reasonable to regard consciousness as an emergent property of a physical system there is no profound sense in which it can be said that different people's brains work according to the same kinds of processes and an appropriately programmed computer and a human brain would work according to different processes. Any difference between these situations is just a matter of degree and any argument that we should presume other people conscious because their brains work in basically the same sort of way could also be used to justify presuming an appropriately programmed computer conscious.
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Against the Supernatural as a Profound Idea
By Paul Almond
01 November 2008
Shows that the term "supernatural", and similar terms, cannot have any of the profound meanings that people normally think they imply. This leaves a choice of discarding the word as incoherent or accepting its use but only with less profound meanings. This has implications for the frequent theistic claim that a "supernatural" god exists who is profoundly different to anything else.
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The Principle of Modal Realism Equivalence
By Paul Almond
13 August 2008
The principle of modal realism equivalence states that the methodology we apply for making statistical predictions about the world and the results obtained should be the same regardless of whether or not modal realism is true. If modal realism is true then probability calculations would be about where we are likely to be in the set of different, actual worlds. If modal realism is false then they would be about which is likely to be the actual world in the set of possible worlds. Both approaches differ only in the semantics of "possible" and "actual".
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The Theistic Apologist's Worst Nightmare: A Reality In Which Time Is Unimportant
By Paul Almond
03 August 2008
Some views of reality feature time as a constructed phenomenon instead of part of the fundamental framework of reality. These kinds of views have serious consequences for some arguments used to support the existence of God by claiming that God is needed to "cause" the universe, because they relegate time and causality to an unimportant, and possibly parochial, position. Further, if most of reality is atemporal, as some views now suggest, then the entire concept of God is questionable because it appears to rely on concepts such as intention which only make sense as temporal ideas.
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Civilization-Level Quantum Suicide
By Paul Almond
02 June 2008
If you think quantum suicide is valid then you should expect an advanced civilization to think that quantum suicide at the level of an entire civilization is valid, as you should expect it to know anything that you know. If you also think the technological singularity idea is correct then you should expect a civilization to start performing civilization-level quantum suicide around the time it undergoes a technological singularity. Motives for quantum suicide could be quantum suicide reality editing - using quantum suicide to enter desirable situations - and quantum suicide computing - using quantum suicide to gain huge computing capability. This provides possible answers for the Fermi paradox, the Doomsday argument and the simulation hypothesis. This article is not arguing for or against the validity of quantum suicide, but merely considering implications of quantum suicide being valid.
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Minds, Substrate, Measure and Value - Part 3: The Problem of Arbitrariness of Interpretation
By Paul Almond
11 May 2008
Previous articles in this series argued that probability in some thought experiments in which you are unsure about your status is based on the substrates on which algorithms are running and that the nature of the substrate is statistically relevant to the measure with which an algorithm runs and affects the measure of any minds associated with such algorithms. This article provides a deeper explanation by discussing arbitrariness of interpretation. Previously called "multiple realizability" by John Searle, this is the problem caused by the need to apply an interpretation to a physical system to say that it is running an algorithm and the possibility of applying any interpretation to obtain any algorithm, leading to an apparent observer subjectivity in the algorithms that a physical system is running. Searle argues that multiple realizability makes the strong AI hypothesis incoherent. This conclusion is unnecessary, although the strong AI hypothesis needs some clarification. Instead, the many-interpretations position is proposed to deal with the issue of observer subjectivity.
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Minds, Substrate, Measure and Value - Part 2: Extra Information About Substrate Dependence
By Paul Almond
03 November 2007
A continuation of the series of articles exploring the relationship between minds and physical systems (substrates) on which they are based. The previous article Minds, Substrate, Measure and Value, Part 1: Substrate Dependence used a thought experiment to show that substrate matters, but not in the way that John Searle thinks. It was shown that the substrate influences the probabilities that you are in various situations in some thought experiments in which there is uncertainty about the substrate on which you currently exist. The substrate is statistically important and influences the measure of minds associated with computing done on it. This article will strengthen the argument made in the previous article.
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Minds, Substrate, Measure and Value - Part 1: Substrate Dependence
By Paul Almond
12 September 2007
The first in a series of articles exploring the relationship between minds and substrates on which they are based. Strong AI advocates typically maintain that the substrate is irrelevant, provided that the required computation can be performed on it, and only the computation matters. John Searle, an opponent of strong AI, argues that the substrate does matter and that a mind is not just computation on a substrate but is caused by specific physical processes. Searle states that there is no reason to assume that all substrates that allow general computation can support minds. A thought experiment will show that the substrate matters, but not in the way that Searle thinks. The substrate matters statistically and affects the measure of a mind.
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Planning As Modelling: A New Version
By Paul Almond
29 July 2007
Describes a revised version of the planning as modelling approach to planning in artificial intelligence (AI). Planning As Modelling is based on the idea that planning is prediction and uses an AI system's modelling system to produce probabilistic predictions of future behaviour that are equivalent to planning of future behaviour. The tree search approach described in earlier articles is no longer necessary, the processing that it did being absorbed into the modelling system as part of its prediction.
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Planning As Modelling: A Revised Description
By Paul Almond
27 April 2007
Describes the planning as modelling approach to planning in artificial intelligence (AI). This uses an AI system's modelling system to produce probabilistic predictions of future behaviour that are equivalent to planning of future behaviour. The article combines concepts from previous articles about planning as modelling.
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Resolving the Horizon Problem in Planning As Modelling
By Paul Almond
30 March 2007
Previous articles such as Planning as Modelling in AI and Programming of Planning as Modelling in AI suggested the planning as modelling approach to planning in artificial intelligence. Planning as modelling provides AI planning by using the AI's modelling system to produce probabilistic predictions of future behaviour equivalent to planning of future behaviour. The approach as described previously has a "horizon" problem. Planning as modelling is supposed to limit the searching required for optimum behaviour according to the likelihood of different possible futures. A course of action could be found desirable after being considered part of an unlikely future, the previous consideration that the behaviour is unlikely meaning its selection was based on a shallow, and therefore possibly unreliable, search. This article will modify planning as modelling to deal with this problem.
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A Refutation of Plantinga's Modal Ontological Argument - and why it even suggests a disproof of God
By Paul Almond
28 February 2007
Alvin Plantinga's modal ontological argument is intended to prove God's existence without reference to empirical observation, but instead showing that the existence of God logically follows from the definition of God. The argument suggests that the actual existence of God follows from the possible existence of God as a necessary entity. This article will show that the modal ontological argument is invalid and, worse, that the assumptions in the modal ontological argument are more useful in disproving God's existence.
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Why Is Space 3D?
By Paul Almond
21 January 2007
Our perception of the world is that it has 3D space. This highly speculative article will suggest an anthropic explanation of this. The article supports an ensemble view of reality in which many space-times exist and considers the type of space-time in which most observers will find themselves. It is suggested that such a space-time is the type in which we should most likely expect to find ourselves.
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Can God Exist Outside Space-Time?
By Paul Almond
20 January 2007
Many theists claim that God exists outside of space-time and created it. This article will show that this is incoherent without significant qualification. An attempt is made to interpret the concept of "creation" in a tenseless, or atemporal (timeless), way and it is then shown that it still does not work without significant qualification on account of it being ontologically meaningless to claim any difference between the "creator" and the "created" in an atemporal situation. Although there are ways in which the concept could be qualified to make it coherent, this may reduce God's resemblance to the entity claimed to exist by theists.
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Programming of Planning As Modelling in AI
By Paul Almond
28 December 2006
Previous articles such as Planning as Modelling in AI suggested the planning as modelling approach to planning in artificial intelligence. This provides planning in an AI system by using the AI's modelling system to produce probabilistic predictions of future behaviour that are equivalent to planning of future behaviour. This article will provide example computer programs in Pascal for planning as modelling.
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Planning as Modelling in AI
By Paul Almond
26 November 2006
Previous articles, How AI Would Work and Occam’s Razor Part 9: Representation and Planning of Actions in Artificial Intelligence, described planning as modelling, an approach to planning in AI which breaks the partition between planning and modelling which has traditionally been a feature of AI. In planning as modelling the AI system's predictions of its own future behaviour are used to plan its future behaviour. Planning therefore occurs almost completely within the modelling system as a trivial special case of modelling. In previous articles planning as modelling was discussed in the context of the specific hierarchical, probabilistic modelling system which has been proposed. The idea is more general than this and can be used with other probabilistic modelling systems. This article will describe planning as modelling in a more general context, separate from the specific details of the probabilistic hierarchy previously proposed, so that planning as modelling is easier to understand and not seen as dependent on other features of the AI system. It will also describe a change to the concept described in previous articles about planning which will improve the AI system’s planning ability by including inputs in its search for optimum behaviour.
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Downward Transfer of Probabilities in AI
By Paul Almond
15 October 2006
My previous article How AI Would Work and other articles proposed an approach to AI in which probabilities of meanings obtained from probabilistic interpretation of partial models are stored in a hierarchy. Information on the bottom level of the hierarchy, where input and output events occur, is abstracted on higher levels. Downward transfer of probabilities is an important process in the AI system, but has not yet been described in any detail. This article will give an idea of how downward transfer of probabilities could work.
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AI as a Boundary System
By Paul Almond
17 September 2006
Proposes a paradigm for dealing with the AI (artificial intelligence) system suggested in my previous article How AI Would Work and other articles. The paradigm is that of an AI system as a boundary system – a system with limited capabilities, confined to a simple, basic “layer” of computation between two “worlds” - outside reality and the AI system’s own functional hierarchy.
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How AI Would Work
By Paul Almond
04 September 2006
Outlines how artificial intelligence (AI) should work. In previous articles I have proposed an approach for making AI, but I have not yet outlined it in a single article. This article will give an overview of the proposed AI system. This article is not a substitute for previous articles, but it should make my approach more accessible. It will also provide a discussion of how the carpet texture problem can be resolved in this system.
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Funding of Ambitious Projects
By Paul Almond
05 August 2006
Very ambitious projects have a track record of going nowhere. Why should anyone invest in a dangerous, ambitious project like this when it is well known that they tend to fail? This is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Anyone considering investing has to consider the problem that ambitious projects tend to fail by not achieving adequate investment and this is likely to dissuade many investors. This expectation of failure, however, can be the very cause of the failure! This article will describe how the routine availability of conditional investment could be a solution for this problem.
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Occam's Razor Part 9: Representation and Planning of Actions in Artificial Intelligence
By Paul Almond
29 July 2006
Describes use of the probabilistic, hierarchical ontology from the previous article in planning. With the previous article this gives an overview of how an intelligent machine would work, from processing of sensory inputs to acting. There is no separate, hierarchical planning system, "closely-coupled" to the hierarchy of meaning extraction from sensory inputs, for transmitting actions down to the bottom level of the hierarchy, as may be expected. The hierarchical model makes predictions about reality and the planning of actions is really just the system predicting its own behaviour, so planning is modelling and can be performed by the modelling system.
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Occam's Razor Part 8: Modelling in Artificial Intelligence
By Paul Almond
09 June 2006
Builds on previous articles in the series to show how a computer can use sensory inputs obtained from reality to assemble a probabilistically and hierarchically expressed worldview - a model of how reality works. This is explored in some detail and the emphasis is on making intelligent machines rather than philosophy.
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How to Rig an Internet Election
By Paul Almond
04 May 2006
This article will describe a weakness in the security of Internet voting processes. Although an electoral process may be well defended against direct electoral attacks it will be much harder to defend it against indirect electoral attacks. I will explain what I mean by direct and indirect attacks and how an indirect attack could be made: I will be showing how to rig an Internet election.
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Occam's Razor Part 7: Hierarchy and Ontology
By Paul Almond
30 April 2006
This is the latest article in the series on Occam's razor. The previous article proposed that partial models are best described by meaning extraction algorithms, but did not include any concept of hierarchy. This article will show how the previous concept of partial models as meaning extraction algorithms can be extended to allow construction of hierarchical models. There will also be an ontological discussion relating this to the concept of "existence".
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Many-Worlds Assisted Mind Uploading: A Thought Experiment
By Paul Almond
06 April 2006
This article proposes and discusses a thought experiment relating to mind uploading, the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, quantum suicide and quantum immortality. This is a speculative article and I do not take a final position on all of the issues that it raises, but it facilitates philosophical discussion about what we are and what continuity of self means.
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Occam's Razor Part 6: Partial Models as "Envelopes"
By Paul Almond
26 February 2006
To use Occam's razor in artificial intelligence, or to test real claims, we need a better way of representing models than what we have been discussing so far. It must be general enough to express any human models of reality and must somehow allow concepts within a model to relate to concepts within a human equivalent of the same model. This is the subject of this article. It will not deal directly with Occam's razor, but rather with how we can describe partial models differently to enable a complete worldview to be described by a number of partial models being used together.
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When Are People Responsible?
By Paul Almond
09 February 2006
There is controversy about the extent to which we should hold people "responsible" for actions. In some situations we say that a person is "responsible" for an action, but in others, despite the act being committed, that he/she is not "responsible". What is this "responsibility"? If we can say when people have it and when they do not then we would be answering this question. Common ideas about assigning responsibility are too vague or inconsistent to be philosophically useful. This article will suggest an approach that is consistent and could be formalized.
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Occam's Razor Part 5: How Mapping Can Work
By Paul Almond
14 January 2006
The previous articles in this series have set out assumptions needed for Occam's razor to work and started a justification of it. The concept of "mapping" of partial models onto complete models has been used, but no explanation has been given of what it means to say that a partial model "maps onto" a complete model. This article will show how a partial model can be said to "map onto" a complete model and why partial models favoured by Occam's razor will tend to map onto large numbers of complete models, making them more likely to be "correct".
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Occam's Razor Part 4: An Overview of How Occam's Razor Works
By Paul Almond
24 December 2005
This is the fourth article in the series about Occam's razor. The last article suggested that a single algorithmic description of reality is correct and that no particular algorithmic description should be given preferred status. This means that any algorithmic description of reality should be as likely as any other to be the correct one. This may seem to contradict Occam's razor which suggests that certain descriptions of reality - the "simpler" ones - are preferred. This article will resolve this and describe how Occam's razor can actually work.
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Against the Idea that Religious Belief is Needed to Have Ethics
By Paul Almond
04 December 2005
There is a type of question which challenges an atheist to show how society could have any ethics if there were no religion. The question is clearly intended to make the point that society could not be ethical in the absence of religious belief to provide ethical values by the presumed inability of an atheist to answer the question satisfactorily. The purpose of this article is to refute the argument implicit in the asking of this question.
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Occam's Razor Part 3: Assumptions About Reality
By Paul Almond
13 November 2005
This is the third article in the series about Occam's razor. There needs to be a kind of way of looking at reality which allows us to determine which model is best for describing it. This article will deal with this. It will present the minimal meta-assumptions regarding reality that are needed to allow Occam's razor to be obtained.
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Against the Idea that God is Superior to Logic
By Paul Almond
20 October 2005
Some theists claim that God is superior to logic, which is to say that God is unrestrained by logic and that God is 'above logic'. This article will demonstrate that such claims cause all proofs of God's existence to fail and that anyone making the claim that God is above logic is depriving him/herself of any good arguments supporting God's existence.
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Occam's Razor Part 2: Principles of Language
By Paul Almond
9 October 2005
This is the second article in the series about Occam's razor. The previous article Occam's Razor Part 1: What is Occam's Razor? introduced the concept of Occam's razor and discussed it in general terms. This article will deal with principles about how theories should be expressed. The next article will deal with assumptions about reality, and how theories relate to it, that are necessary to allow Occam's razor to be derived.
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The Diminished God Refutation: Why unlikely sequences of events do not prove a god
By Paul Almond
24 September 2005
One type of attempted proof of God refers to a sequence of events known to have occurred, but considered to be outrageously unlikely. These events usually have a combined probability which is supposed to be very low and the proof suggests that a God must have therefore been the real cause. This article will refute this proof and weaken the case for the existence of God.
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Occam's Razor Part 1: What Is Occam's Razor?
By Paul Almond
22 August 2005
Occam's razor is a philosophical idea with importance in a number of areas, including scientific theory selection, human psychology and artifical intelligence. This is the first of a series of articles which will attempt to describe Occam's razor in a formal way and present a justification for it. In this article the idea of Occam's razor is described and its importance discussed.
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What is a Low Level Language
By Paul Almond
17 July 2005
The idea of 'low level' languages is one with which most computer programmers can deal intuitively, yet the term 'low level' is harder to define than is commonly thought. What constitutes a low level language is of some philosophical importance. This article is intended to address this problem. It will discuss the idea of 'low level' language, consider the need for a workable concept of 'low level language' in philosophy and propose a way of defining it. This article will precede a series that I intend to write about Occam's razor.
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Improving Computer Security
By Paul Almond
06 July 2005
This article discusses the threat posed to computer systems from programs that have been intentionally installed on them by their legitimate users. Programs have enormous power on computers and the consequences of malicious intent or carelessness by programmers can be serious. This issue will ultimately be more serious than the issue of perimeter security in areas ranging from home computing to large scale government software contracts. This article proposes a security paradigm which could help to control this problem.
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Taking the Virtual out Of Virtual Reality
By Paul Almond
17 March 2005
An idea for placing virtual reality into reality to form a shared-augmented reality, occupying the existing reality with which we are familiar. The shared-augmented reality could be altered in real-time by its users and the emphasis would be on users generating content rather than on it being provided by some central source. This would be equivalent to projecting a three-dimensional version of the existing internet into physical reality. This article discusses the implications of such a system and gives some consideration to the issue of how it could be built.
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Getting Darwinian Evolution to Work - Part 2
By Paul Almond
18 November 2004
In a previous article it was suggested that Darwinian evolution has higher levels of abstraction and that explicitly exploiting these in attempts to evolve software on computers could allow programs of greater sophistication. A multi-layered system was proposed which used the concept of 'evolving evolvability'. This article proposes an improvement to this method which involves using a 'compilative' architecture.
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A Refutation of Penrose's Godel-Turing Proof that Computational Artificial Intelligence is Impossible
By Paul Almond
24 October 2004
In his 1994 book Shadows of the Mind Roger Penrose gave a proof attempting to show that computational artificial intelligence is impossible. The proof is often known as the Godelian proof or the Godel-Turing proof and is intended to show that there are certain facts that can be known to humans yet can never be known to algorithms. This article provides a refutation of Penrose's proof.
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Did 'I' Write This?
By Paul Almond
08 October 2004
Is it possible that certain technologies could appear to extend your life, yet are so extreme that they actually fail because you are not the same person afterwards? 'Continuity of self' appears to be a simple and self-evident concept to many people who may have opinions about whether various processes that humans can undergo would or would not preserve this continuity. This article will suggest that this is a fallacy and that 'continuity of self' is an incoherent and unnecessary concept.
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Game Theory with Yourself
By Paul Almond
30 December 2003
What would it be like to play a game involving a duplicate of yourself? This article discusses various scenarios involving mind uploading and 'free will' within the context of games in which your reward depends on the actions of your duplicate.
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Could Computers be Religious?
By Paul Almond
11 August 2003
Discusses the possibility of computers acquiring religious beliefs in the future, within the context of a possible explanation for the occurrence of religion in human societies based on the social modelling capabilities of the brain.
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John Searle's Position within an Evolutionary Context
By Paul Almond
09 August 2003
An argument against John Searle's reasoning about consciousness that uses Darwin's theory of evolution to attempt to weaken his case. It is suggested that statements made by Searle suggest that human consciousness is a very high specificity feature of some biological systems that is not easily explained by Darwin's theory of evolution.
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Indirect Mind Uploading: Using AI to Avoid Staying Dead
By Paul Almond
09 August 2003
A consideration of life extension from an artificial intelligence perspective, discussing the idea of indirect mind uploading - the idea that a computer model could be made of a human mind without the use of sophisticated scanning technnologies. The intention of this article is to present a mind uploading method that could be useful to a person who is alive today.
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Getting Darwinian Evolution to Work
By Paul Almond
12 February 2003
Suggests that Darwinian evolution has higher levels of abstraction and that explicitly exploiting these in attempts to evolve software on computers could allow programs of greater sophistication. A multi-layered system is proposed which uses the concept of 'evolving evolvability'. This article was originally published at to http://ai-depot.com/Articles/54/Evolution.html on 12 February 2003 and a copy published here on 26 October 2004.
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